“The Crisis Will Put an End to the Dreams of American Hegemony”
We are pleased to present to our readers an interview with Vyacheslav Trubnikov, a member of the IMEMO Directorate, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation, General of the Army, Hero of Russia. In a conversation with IMEMO Senior Researcher Alexey Kupriyanov he shares his vision of the current trends and possible scenarios for the post-COVID world, discusses the challenges for Russia, relations with India and other important issues.
The COVID crisis and other current challenges, including those in the oil market, will definitely affect political, economic and social developments. However, Vyacheslav Trubnikov believes that the crisis has accelerated already existing processes and advises not to overdramatize the situation. He recommends basing the forecasts and decisions during and after the crisis on the expert community analysis rather than rushing to ill-conceived measures and hasty reforms.
The perception that there is no alternative to liberal economy and the myth about the American exceptiopnalism and hegemony are likely coming to an end, and that will soon become evident even in the US. Tensions and disagreements between the US and China will remain, however, Mr. Trubnikov does not think there will be a new full-scale Cold War involving these two states – at least, until the end of the pandemic. The world is going towards a polycentric rather than bipolar order, where globalization and regionalization are happening simultaneously. The conversation covers a possible strategy for Russia in this emerging configuration when the leading powers will likely have to reconsider their ambitions after the crisis.
Another major theme of the interview is India’s position in the emerging world order as well as its internal challenges and the country’s response to the pandemic. Mr. Trubnikov discusses the prospects for Russia in terms of its relations with both China and India. He recommends sustaining and revitalizing the most constructive format where Russia can continue to balance existing discrepancies between China’s and India’s positions. The expert also discusses the challenges to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party connected to the pandemic and India’s economic and social situation.
In the concluding remarks, Mr. Trubnikov shares his opinion on the most pressing issues the expert and analytical community is facing in the light of the current crisis.
Trubnikov V. “The Crisis Will Put an End to the Dreams of American Hegemony” (Interview with V.I. Trubnikov). Analysis & Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO, 2020, no 2, pp. 14-19. https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2020-2-14-19