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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">afjournal</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="ru">Анализ и прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>Analysis &amp; Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn pub-type="epub">2713-170X</issn>
   <publisher>
    <publisher-name xml:lang="ru">ИМЭМО РАН</publisher-name>
   </publisher>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20542/afij-2020-2-14-19</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
     <subject>Research Article</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Статьи</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="ru">“Кризис навсегда покончит с мечтами об американской гегемонии”</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>“The Crisis Will Put an End to the Dreams of American Hegemony”</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group>
    <contrib contrib-type="author" id="author-1" corresp="yes">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Трубников</surname>
       <given-names>Вячеслав Иванович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Trubnikov</surname>
       <given-names>Vyacheslav</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <pub-date pub-type="epub">
    <day>11</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2020</year>
   </pub-date>
   <issue>2</issue>
   <fpage>14</fpage>
   <lpage>19</lpage>
   <permissions>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">© Трубников В.И., 2020
Интервью поступило в редакцию 18.04.2020</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="en">© Trubnikov V.I., 2020
Received 18.04.2020</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
    <copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Трубников В.И.</copyright-holder>
    <copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Trubnikov V.</copyright-holder>
   </permissions>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://www.afjournal.ru/2020/2/development-trends-and-risks/the-crisis-will-put-an-end-to-the-dreams-of-american-hegemony">https://www.afjournal.ru/2020/2/development-trends-and-risks/the-crisis-will-put-an-end-to-the-dreams-of-american-hegemony</self-uri>
   <abstract>
    <p>Предлагаем вниманию читателей интервью с Вячеславом Ивановичем Трубниковым, членом Дирекции Национального исследовательского института мировой экономики и международных отношений имени Е.М. Примакова РАН, Чрезвычайным и Полномочным Послом РФ, генералом армии, Героем России, которое он дал старшему научному сотруднику ИМЭМО РАН А.В. Куприянову.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>We are pleased to present to our readers an interview with Vyacheslav Trubnikov, a member of the IMEMO Directorate, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation, General of the Army, Hero of Russia. In a conversation with IMEMO Senior Researcher Alexey Kupriyanov he shares his vision of the current trends and possible scenarios for the post-COVID world, discusses the challenges for Russia, relations with India and other important issues.
The COVID crisis and other current challenges, including those in the oil market, will definitely affect political, economic and social developments. However, Vyacheslav Trubnikov believes that the crisis has accelerated already existing processes and advises not to overdramatize the situation. He recommends basing the forecasts and decisions during and after the crisis on the expert community analysis rather than rushing to ill-conceived measures and hasty reforms.
The perception that there is no alternative to liberal economy and the myth about the American exceptiopnalism and hegemony are likely coming to an end, and that will soon become evident even in the US. Tensions and disagreements between the US and China will remain, however, Mr. Trubnikov does not think there will be a new full-scale Cold War involving these two states – at least, until the end of the pandemic. The world is going towards a polycentric rather than bipolar order, where globalization and regionalization are happening simultaneously. The conversation covers a possible strategy for Russia in this emerging configuration when the leading powers will likely have to reconsider their ambitions after the crisis.
Another major theme of the interview is India’s position in the emerging world order as well as its internal challenges and the country’s response to the pandemic. Mr. Trubnikov discusses the prospects for Russia in terms of its relations with both China and India. He recommends sustaining and revitalizing the most constructive format where Russia can continue to balance existing discrepancies between China’s and India’s positions. The expert also discusses the challenges to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party connected to the pandemic and India’s economic and social situation.
In the concluding remarks, Mr. Trubnikov shares his opinion on the most pressing issues the expert and analytical community is facing in the light of the current crisis.
About the author:
Vyacheslav I. TRUBNIKOV, member of the Directorate of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation, Hero of Russia, General of the Army.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
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 <back>
  <ref-list>
   <title>References</title>
   <ref id="cit1">
    <label>1</label>
    <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Дынкин А.В., Телегина Е.А. Александр Дынкин: Танец черных лебедей. Мировая премьера. Интерфакс, 29.03.2020 . [Dynkin A.V., Telegina E.A. Aleksandr Dynkin: Tanets chernykh lebedei. Mirovaya prem'era [Aleksandr Dynkin: The Black Swans Dance. World Premiere]. Interfax, 29.03.2020]. Available at: https://www.interfax.ru/interview/701437 (accessed 20.04.2020).</mixed-citation>
   </ref>
   <ref id="cit2">
    <label>2</label>
    <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kissinger H.A. The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order . The Wall Street Journal, 03.04.2020. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-forever-alter-the-world-order-11585953005 (accessed 20.04.2020).</mixed-citation>
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   <ref id="cit3">
    <label>3</label>
    <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Upadhyaya S. Preparing for a Post-Covid World? China and India Settle Old Scores and Team Up. Russia Today, 08.04.2020. Available at: https://www.rt.com/op-ed/485125-india-china-relations-coronavirus/ (accessed 20.04.2020).</mixed-citation>
   </ref>
  </ref-list>
  <fn-group>
   <fn fn-type="conflict">
    <p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p>
   </fn>
  </fn-group>
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