A European Path of Moldova: Illusions and Reality (Specific Circumstances)
The article is devoted to the influence exercised by Germany, the European Union, the USA, and Russia on Moldavia’s home and foreign policy in the context of integration processes in Europe and in the post-Soviet territories. The analysis of the causes of Kishinev’s failures in carrying out the reforms testifies to the mistakes made by Germany, the EU, the USA, and the Russian Federation due to the underestimation of the Moldavian oligarchic clans which seized the key posts in the governmental structures. While relying on the support from Russia, the EU and the USA, the parliamentary majority in Moldova succeeded in bringing into being a governmental coalition composed of the Party of Socialists and the right-wing block ACUM. The compromise opens prospects for a mutually beneficial cooperation of Moldova with Russia, the CIS, the EAEU, the EU, and the USA. The statement by Chancellor A. Merkel in June 2019 as to the absence of trustworthy information about the depth of political crisis in Moldova is either an evidence of poor performance by German diplomats, or an evidence of Berlin’s deliberate disregard of the activities by political forces in Moldova who are identifying themselves as pro-European. One thing is clear: having seen the endorsement of the Kiev regime by Germany, the EU and the USA, the oligarchs in Moldova also decided to assume the reins of authority within the country. Meanwhile the pronouncements by the head of the government M. Sandu on the possibility of holding out-of-term parliamentary elections and the supposed viability of the government that can last only one year encourage the experts in their assumptions that there are profound differences inside the coalition. Therefore, any forecasts of the future of the coalition between socialists and the right-wing forces seem difficult to make. Contradictions between the participants in the governmental alliance, for example regarding the approaches to the solution of the conflict in Transdniestria, may act as a catalyst on the out-of-term elections to the Moldavian parliament.
Apprehensions concerning the likely resignation of the government of parliamentary majority composed of socialists and the right-wing forces headed by Premier Maia Sandu (the right-wing bloc) came true. According to the experts, she did not seek agreement with her socialist partners in the coalition when planning to update the legislative procedure for appointing Prosecutor General. Nor she consulted the members of her own party. A step of this kind could have strengthened the positions of the government’s right-wing bloc and secure a favourable head-start for the Premier when launching the Republic’s presidential elections of 2020.Maia Sandu’s government was fired by means of the no confidence vote lodged by the socialists in parliament.
The new government of Moldova headed by Prime Minister Iona Kiku (no party affiliation) declared its intention to pursue reforms in the fields of economy, justice, state governance, to go ahead with the implementation of the Agreement of Association with the European Union, to build back Kishinev’s strategic relations with Moscow and Washington and to promote cooperation and friendship with Ukraine and Romania. Now there are too few people who venture to predict the capacity of Moldova’s new government.
Russia has an incentive in the resumption of a pragmatic and mutually beneficial dialog with Moldova in various fields on the basis of the 2001 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation.
Vasil'ev V. A European Path of Moldova: Illusions and Reality (Specific Circumstances). Analysis & Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO, 2019, no 3, pp. 59-72. https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-3-59-72