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Growth Factors and Trends of Global Trade
Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal

Growth Factors and Trends of Global Trade

DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-1-51-62
© Vladimir G. VARNAVSKII, 2020
Received 29.02.20
Vladimir G. VARNAVSKII (, ORCID: 0000-0003-1772-1800,
Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.

The article is devoted to an in-depth study of the modern factors and trends of the world trade. It provides an overview of the economic literature and development of theoretical frameworks of global trade factors. Three main factors are identified in the article, namely: (1) globalization, (2) computer revolution and ICT-technologies, and (3) China’s opening to the world. The tendencies of the international trade in the past three decades are analyzed. The main trends of world economy and trade are discussed. There is particular emphasis on the world trade reduction causes in 2015 and 2016. Special attention is paid to the changes in the US and China bilateral trade. GDP growth slowed down in both the U.S. and China during three years of their trade war. Nevertheless, despite this relative decline the United States and China remain the world’s largest importers and exporters of goods and services and the main trading partners. USA accounts for 8.8 percent of global goods exports in 2018 (second place after China with 13.1 percent) and 13.5 percent of global imports (first place; China is 11.0 percent). The author’s conclusion is as follow: the proportion between the world trade and global GDP that has been established by now should be considered as normal and optimal in terms of the global reproduction system’s functioning.

For citation:

Varnavskii V. Growth Factors and Trends of Global Trade. Analysis & Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO, 2020, no 1, pp. 51-62.

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