2015 – 2020 гг. научный сотрудник Центра североамериканских исследований ИМЭМО РАН С 2021 г. – руководитель Центра изучения стратегического планирования ИМЭМО РАН 2023 – 2025 гг. и.о. директора Института США и Канады им. Г.А. Арбатова Российский академии наук (ИСКРАН) Образование: В 2013 г. закончил Исторический факультет МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова, Кафедра новой и новейшей истории . В 2019 г. защитил диссертацию на соискание ученой степени кандидата политических наук (5.5.4. – Международные отношения по политическим наукам), ИМЭМО РАН Сфера научных интересов : протекционизм и торговая политика США; промышленная политика; трансатлантические отношения; стратегическое и индикативное планирование; прогнозирование международных процессов. . ResearcherID Профиль автора в Scopus Профиль автора в Science Index
Skills and career: 2015-2020 – researcher at the Center for North American Studies, IMEMO 2023-2025 – Acting Director of the Arbatov U.S. and Canada Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN) Since 2021 – Head of the Center for Strategic Planning Studies, IMEMO Education: 2013 – graduate from the History Department of Lomonosov Moscow State University 2019, – PhD in political sciences, IMEMO Area of research interests: • Protectionism and US trade policy • Industrial policy • Transatlantic relations • Strategic and indicative planning • Forecasting of international processes ResearcherID Author`s profile in Scopus
В статье проводится институциональный анализ американских “мозговых центров”, занятых в сфере средне- и долгосрочного прогнозирования. Внимание уделяется научным и государственным организациям. Сложившаяся в США школа прогнозирования, являясь одной из наиболее авторитетных в мировом научном сообществе, располагает определенными институциональными чертами, которые оформились в процессе ее эволюции. Автором анализируются наиболее крупные научно-экспертные организации, занятые в этой сфере. По результатам исследования делается вывод о том, что институциональное устройство по сути отражает те методологические аспекты прогнозирования, которые актуальны для американских подходов.
The article is devoted to the institutional aspects of American forecasting. Most attention is paid to non-governmental scientific organizations. The research is based on materials of leading US organizations and expert interviews. The first part of the study is devoted to the development of predictive researches in the US in 1950–1980. This period was expressed by works of RAND Corporation, World Future Society, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, Huston University and others. An increase in the complexity and universality of forecasts has led to further inclusion of representatives from various target audiences. Forecasts have included issues of the social, legal and ethical agenda. More attention was paid to problems of education, employment, and redistribution of resources. The second part of this study is devoted to modern organizations and new methodologies. A current generation of forecasters is represented by the National Intelligence Council and its research “Global Trends". The Millennium Project is another important organization. It provides an integrated and constantly updated forecast “State of the Future”. Attention is also paid to the Association of professional futurists. At the end of the study, three main conclusions are made. Firstly, an accurate prediction of future trends is not the main forecasting goal. The main task is to create a reasoned view of the future world. Secondly, there is no clear separation between forecasting and foresight which is a further development of predictive research. It uses an interdisciplinary approach and includes current economic, technological and social trends. Thirdly, the attraction of a wide range of experts (including foreign ones) increases the objectivity. This also affects the institutional structure of US organizations. The internationalization of forecasting has a scientific effect and contributes to the credibility of American institutions and the US “soft power”. About author : Sergey V. KISLITSYN, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Research Associate, Sector of US Foreign and Domestic Policy, Center for North American Studies.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.