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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">afjournal</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="ru">Анализ и прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>Analysis &amp; Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn pub-type="epub">2713-170X</issn>
   <publisher>
    <publisher-name xml:lang="ru">ИМЭМО РАН</publisher-name>
   </publisher>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20542/afij-2023-2-14-23</article-id>
   <article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">PDIUYX</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
     <subject>Research Article</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Статьи</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="ru">Трансформация цепей поставок в ситуации глобального кризиса</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>Supply Chain Transformation amid a Global Crisis</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff xml:lang="ru">
     <institution>БРОДЕЦКИЙ Геннадий Леонидович, доктор технических наук, профессор, ординарный профессор департамента операционного менеджмента и логистики Высшей школы бизнеса.
Национальный исследовательский университет “Высшая школа экономики”, РФ, 119049 Москва, ул. Шаболовка, 28/11 ( gbrodetskiy @ hse . ru ), ORCID : 0000-0002-3483-1078

ГЕРАМИ Виктория Дарабовна, доктор технических наук, профессор, профессор департамента операционного менеджмента и логистики Высшей школы бизнеса.
Национальный исследовательский университет “Высшая школа экономики”, РФ, 119049 Москва, ул. Шаболовка, 28/11 ( vgerami @ hse . ru ), ORCID : 0000-0002-2714-3082

ГУСЕВ Денис Александрович, кандидат экономических наук, доцент департамента операционного менеджмента и логистики Высшей школы бизнеса.
Национальный исследовательский университет “Высшая школа экономики”, РФ, 119049 Москва, ул. Шаболовка, 28/11 ( dgussev @ hse . ru ), ORCID : 0000-0002-2173-1270

КОЛИК Александр Вениаминович, кандидат технических наук, доцент, профессор департамента операционного менеджмента и логистики Высшей школы бизнеса.
Национальный исследовательский университет “Высшая школа экономики”, РФ, 119049 Москва, ул. Шаболовка, 28/11 ( akolik @ hse . ru ), ORCID : 0000-0003-3322-2462</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff id="aff-1-en-1" xml:lang="en">
     <institution>National Research University ‘Higher School of Economics’, 28/11, Shabolovka Str., Moscow 119049, Russian Federation</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff id="aff-2-en-1" xml:lang="en">
     <institution>National Research University ‘Higher School of Economics’, 28/11, Shabolovka Str., Moscow 119049, Russian Federation</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff id="aff-3-en-1" xml:lang="en">
     <institution>National Research University ‘Higher School of Economics’, 28/11, Shabolovka Str., Moscow 119049, Russian Federation</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff id="aff-4-en-1" xml:lang="en">
     <institution>National Research University ‘Higher School of Economics’, 28/11, Shabolovka Str., Moscow 119049, Russian Federation</institution>
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   <contrib-group>
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     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3483-1078</contrib-id>
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      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Бродецкий</surname>
       <given-names>Геннадий Леонидович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Brodetskiy</surname>
       <given-names>Gennadiy</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
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    <contrib contrib-type="author" id="author-2">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2714-3082</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Герами</surname>
       <given-names>Виктория Дарабовна</given-names>
      </name>
      <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Gerami</surname>
       <given-names>Victoria</given-names>
      </name>
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     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2173-1270</contrib-id>
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      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Гусев</surname>
       <given-names>Денис Александрович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Gusev</surname>
       <given-names>Denis</given-names>
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    <contrib contrib-type="author" id="author-4">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3322-2462</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Колик</surname>
       <given-names>Александр Вениаминович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Kolik</surname>
       <given-names>Alexander</given-names>
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   <pub-date pub-type="epub">
    <day>19</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2023</year>
   </pub-date>
   <issue>2</issue>
   <fpage>14</fpage>
   <lpage>23</lpage>
   <permissions>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">© Бродецкий Г.Л., Герами В.Д., Гусев Д.А., Колик А.В., 2023
Поступила в редакцию 10.04.2023.
После доработки 12.05.2023.
Принята к публикации 22.08.2023.</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="en">© Gennadiy L. BRODETSKIY, Victoria D. GERAMI, Denis A. GUSEV, Alexander V. KOLIK, 2023
Received 10.04.2023.
Revised 12.05.2023.
Accepted 22.08.2023.</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-year>2023</copyright-year>
    <copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Бродецкий Г.Л., Герами В.Д., Гусев Д.А., Колик А.В.</copyright-holder>
    <copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Brodetskiy G., Gerami V., Gusev D., Kolik A.</copyright-holder>
   </permissions>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://www.afjournal.ru/2023/2/forecasting-studies/supply-chain-transformation-amid-a-global-crisis">https://www.afjournal.ru/2023/2/forecasting-studies/supply-chain-transformation-amid-a-global-crisis</self-uri>
   <abstract>
    <p>В статье анализируется процесс трансформации международных цепей поставок в глобальной кризисной ситуации, вызванной наложением трех мощных негативных факторов: последствий финансово-экономического кризиса 2008 г., пандемии COVID -19 и экономических санкций против Российской Федерации. Авторы указывают, что дестабилизирующее влияние кризиса в первую очередь сказалось на функционировании системы глобальных цепей поставок, одной из основных составляющих мировой экономики. В современных условиях нормальное функционирование цепей поставок нарушается или становится практически невозможным из-за сбоев в транспортно-товарных потоках, отказов в обслуживании, непрогнозируемых задержек, значительных колебаний цен на товары и услуги и т.д. Критерии и базовые принципы управления цепями поставок, сложившиеся за десятилетия относительно стабильного развития, оказываются неэффективными либо вовсе неприменимыми. В статье обобщены результаты исследований, проведенных отечественными и зарубежными авторами и посвященных повышению стабильности цепей поставок в новых условиях. Теоретические рекомендации сопоставлены с результатами обследования 240 российских компаний, являющихся участниками международных цепей поставок и обеспечивающих импорт товаров в Россию. Выявлены как негативные факторы, влияющие на цепи поставок, так и наиболее значимые направления деятельности российского бизнеса по реконфигурации импортных цепей поставок в кризисных условиях. На основе имеющихся теоретических и эмпирических данных авторы делают предположение о новых характеристиках международных цепей поставок, которые они приобретут в обозримом будущем, как с точки зрения общей идеологии управления и функционирования, так и с точки зрения оперативных решений.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The article is devoted to the process of transformation of international supply chains in a crisis caused by the overlapping of three powerful negative factors: the consequences of the financial and economic crisis of 2008, of the COVID-19 pandemic and of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. The authors point out that the destabilizing effect of the crisis primarily affected the functioning of the global supply chain system, one of the main components of the world economy. Under the current conditions, the normal functioning of supply chains is disrupted or is becoming nearly impossible due to disruptions in transport and commodity flows, denials of service, unpredictable delays, significant fluctuations in prices for goods and services, etc. The article emphasizes that the system of criteria and the basic principles of supply chain management, which have been established over decades of relatively stable development, are currently ineffective or completely inapplicable and need to be substantially adjusted. The theoretical recommendations identified by the authors are compared with the results of their survey of 240 Russian companies representing industry, distribution of goods, retail, logistics services and other segments. The survey made it possible to identify both the main negative factors affecting the supply chains and the most significant course of action for Russian business in order to reconfigure the import in crisis conditions. Based on the available theoretical and empirical data, the authors make an assumption about the new characteristics of international supply chains that they will acquire in the foreseeable future, both in terms of the general ideology of management and operation, and in terms of operational decisions.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>мировая экономика</kwd>
    <kwd>экономическая глобализация</kwd>
    <kwd>деглобализация</kwd>
    <kwd>цепи поставок</kwd>
    <kwd>глобальный кризис</kwd>
    <kwd>реконфигурация цепей поставок</kwd>
    <kwd>стабильность цепей поставок</kwd>
    <kwd>управление цепями поставок</kwd>
    <kwd>новые характеристики международных цепей поставок</kwd>
    <kwd>экономика Российской Федерации</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>world economy</kwd>
    <kwd>economic globalization</kwd>
    <kwd>deglobalization</kwd>
    <kwd>supply chains</kwd>
    <kwd>global crisis</kwd>
    <kwd>supply chain reconfiguration</kwd>
    <kwd>supply chain stability</kwd>
    <kwd>supply chain management</kwd>
    <kwd>new characteristics of international supply chains</kwd>
    <kwd>economy of the Russian Federation</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <custom-meta-group>
    <custom-meta>
     <meta-name>UDK</meta-name>
     <meta-value>339</meta-value>
    </custom-meta>
   </custom-meta-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <back>
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  <fn-group>
   <fn fn-type="conflict">
    <p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p>
   </fn>
  </fn-group>
 </back>
</article>
