At present, the international situation is changing, the world economy is stumbling, protectionism is prevalent, anti-globalization is surging, and the prospects of global economic growth are full of uncertainty. In particular, emerging economies face greater downward pressure. Therefore, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the economic situation of emerging economies, this paper will analyze the factors affecting the economic trend from the demand side, and look into the future economic growth prospects of emerging economies. Compared with 2017, the year 2018 saw the economic growth of the E11 slip mildly. The proportion of the E11 economies in world economy, based on market exchange or PPP, fell slightly, but their economic scale has continued to expand. Meanwhile, the real per capita GDP growth of the E11 was largely unchanged from that in 2017. From the demand side, we can first have a look at the respective contribution of the three major growth engines in 2018. Although final consumption accounted for a smaller proportion of economic growth of the E11 in 2018, it remains the pillar of economic growth. The proportion of investment also dropped and it has played a diminishing role in promoting economic growth. In most E11 countries, net export of goods and services has played a larger role in boosting economic growth and made a positive contribution to growth. In China, however, its net export of goods and services has played a diminishing role in boosting growth and its contribution to growth was negative. The Composite Leading Index (CLI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Business Confidence Index (BCI), released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that in the short term, the economic growth of the E11 economies still faces multiple uncertainties. The possibility is high that growth of the world economy may trend down in 2019, which will spill over to affect the economic performance of the E11. The E11 is on the whole expected to maintain mid- and high-rate growth, but the possibility of their growth rising strongly is slim.
At present, the international situation is changing, the world economy is stumbling, protectionism is prevalent, anti-globalization is surging, and the prospects of global economic growth are full of uncertainty. In particular, emerging economies face greater downward pressure. Therefore, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the economic situation of emerging economies, this paper will analyze the factors affecting the economic trend from the demand side, and look into the future economic growth prospects of emerging economies. Compared with 2017, the year 2018 saw the economic growth of the E11 slip mildly. The proportion of the E11 economies in world economy, based on market exchange or PPP, fell slightly, but their economic scale has continued to expand. Meanwhile, the real per capita GDP growth of the E11 was largely unchanged from that in 2017. From the demand side, we can first have a look at the respective contribution of the three major growth engines in 2018. Although final consumption accounted for a smaller proportion of economic growth of the E11 in 2018, it remains the pillar of economic growth. The proportion of investment also dropped and it has played a diminishing role in promoting economic growth. In most E11 countries, net export of goods and services has played a larger role in boosting economic growth and made a positive contribution to growth. In China, however, its net export of goods and services has played a diminishing role in boosting growth and its contribution to growth was negative. The Composite Leading Index (CLI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Business Confidence Index (BCI), released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that in the short term, the economic growth of the E11 economies still faces multiple uncertainties. The possibility is high that growth of the world economy may trend down in 2019, which will spill over to affect the economic performance of the E11. The E11 is on the whole expected to maintain mid- and high-rate growth, but the possibility of their growth rising strongly is slim.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.