В статье на основе недавно разработанного автором на стыке кибернетики, истории и политологии языка непрямого кодирования спрогнозирована политика администрации США Джозеф Байдена в отношении Восточной Азии. Основой для составления прогнозной модели выступил Промежуточный обзор национальной безопасности США, изданный Белым домом в марте 2021 г. Анализ его текста позволил заключить, что восточноазиатская политика Дж. Байдена будет определяться доминированием китайского вектора, в то время как остальные аспекты регионального курса займут подчиненное ему положение, исключение составит только приоритет противодействия угрозам, исходящим от Северной Кореи. Прогнозируется, что политика Байдена будет определяться двумя направлениями: китайским и северокорейским и приведет к возникновению многомерной разделительной линии между США и их партнерами, с одной стороны, и Китаем и его партнерами, с другой. Сферы взаимодействия США и КНР сузятся.
The article provides a forecast of a potential Joseph Biden’s East Asian policy. The forecast is prepared using the recently developed indirect coding language (ICL), which allows to interpret any state as a system and to build models based on official strategic documents. Through this approach, governmental strategies and official documents accepted as the ones can be translated into specific codes, which are connected to particular subsystems characterizing different aspects of a state’s development. The dynamic character of the model is provided by a temporal approach. The author analyses the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance using the ICL to build a model matching the interpretation of the global and regional development by J. Biden and his administration. Dynamically J. Biden’s policy inherits basic goals of Donald Trump’s in general or partly. Substantial changes of priorities can only be observed in food-agricultural, ecological-environmental and military subsystems. It allows forecasting that in general the 46th president will follow major directions of his predecessor’s policy. ICL-modeling of the J. Biden’s interpretation of East Asia allows forecasting the next basic parameters of probable future US policy in the region. First, the Chinese vector will be its core while all other priorities will be regarded as subordinate with an exception to counteracting the regional threats posed by North Korea. Second, policy toward China as a complicated threat will create a dividing line in several dimensions between United States and its allies and partners on the one hand and PRC and its partners on the other hand. It will affect such fields as economy, trade, technology, energy industry, raw materials, environment and ecology, military development, law, civil and humanitarian affairs. The dividing line will acquire global character because the US will be pursuing their policy priorities in the relations with the Indo-Pacific allies and partners as well as NATO ones, as the Pacific region recently becomes more important. Third, there is less and less space for the US and China cooperation. In the nearest future, it is likely to be limited to the climate change problem, health and nuclear non-proliferation.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.