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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">afjournal</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="ru">Анализ и прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>Analysis &amp; Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn pub-type="epub">2713-170X</issn>
   <publisher>
    <publisher-name xml:lang="ru">ИМЭМО РАН</publisher-name>
   </publisher>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20542/afij-2021-1-70-83</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
     <subject>Research Article</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Статьи</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="ru">Потенциал реагирования франко-германского тандема на вызовы безопасности</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>On the Potential of the Franco-German Tandem to Respond to the Common Security Challenges</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff xml:lang="ru">
     <institution>ТИМОФЕЕВ Павел Петрович, кандидат политических наук, заведующий cектором региональных проблем и конфликтов отдела европейских политических исследований.
Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова Российской академии наук, РФ, 117997 Москва, Профсоюзная, 23 ( p.timofeyev@gmail.com ), ORCID : 0000-0002-0512-7436
ХОРОЛЬСКАЯ Мария Витальевна, кандидат политических наук, научный сотрудник cектора политических проблем европейской интеграции отдела европейских политических исследований.
Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова Российской академии наук, РФ, 117997 Москва, Профсоюзная, 23 ( khorolskaja.marya@yandex.ru ), ORCID : 0000-0002-1885-7729</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff id="aff-2-en-1" xml:lang="en">
     <institution>Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation</institution>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <contrib-group>
    <contrib contrib-type="author" id="author-1" corresp="yes">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0512-7436</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Тимофеев</surname>
       <given-names>Павел Петрович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Timofeev</surname>
       <given-names>Pavel</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>Образование:
МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова (Исторический факультет)
2011 г. – кандидат политических наук. Тема диссертации: «Европейское направление внешней политики Франции после окончания “холодной войны”»

Сфера научных интересов:

внешняя и внутренняя политика современной Франции
российско-французские отношения
внешняя политика ЕС
международные отношения в Средиземноморье и на Ближнем Востоке

С 2017 г. – член Государственной аттестационной комиссии на Историческом факультете МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова
С 2020 г. – эксперт РАН
С 2020 г. – представитель Отделения глобальных проблем и международных отношений в Совете молодых ученых РАН
Победитель конкурса лучших исследователей-международников МГИМО в номинации «Лучшая научная статья молодого ученого» за статью «Отношения России и Франции: актуальные проблемы и состояние (2012-2015)»
Иностранные языки: французский, английский

Профиль автора в Science Index
Профиль автора в Scopus</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>Education:
2007 – Graduated from Lomonosov Moscow State University (Department of History)
2010 – Completed post-graduate studies at IMEMO
2011 – PhD in Political Science at IMEMO. D. thesis: &quot;The European direction of French foreign policy after the end of the Cold War&quot;

Fields of scientific interests:

Foreign and domestic policy of modern France
Russian-French relations
EU foreign policy
International relations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

Foreign languages: French, English
Professional and additional activities:
since 2017 – Member of the State Attestation Commission at the Faculty of History of Lomonosov Moscow State University
since 2020 – Expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences
since 2020 – representative of the Department of Global Affairs and International Relations at the RAS Council of Young Scientists

Winner of the MGIMO Best International Researchers Competition in the category &quot;Best Research Paper by a Young Researcher&quot; for the article &quot;Russia-France Relations: Current Problems and State (2012–2015)&quot;</p>
     </bio>
     <email>pavel.timofeyev@yandex.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"></xref>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author" id="author-2">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1885-7729</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Хорольская</surname>
       <given-names>Мария Витальевна</given-names>
      </name>
      <name name-style="western" xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Khorolskaya</surname>
       <given-names>Maria</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>Образование:
2012 г. – бакалавриат МПГУ (Исторический факультет)
2014 г. – магистратура МПГУ (Исторический факультет)
2019 г. – получение учёной степени кандидата политических наук. Тема диссертации: «Германия после объединения: политические проблемы и противоречия интеграционного процесса» (23.00.02)

Сфера научных интересов:


Внешняя и внутренняя политика современной Германии


Российско-германские отношения


Объединение Германии и интеграция бывшей ГДР в единую страну


Политические партии Германии


Политика Германии в ЕС


Европейская стратегическая автономия


Франко-германский тандем


Политика памяти


Дополнительная деятельность:


Сопредседатель Совета молодых ученых ИМЭМО РАН с 2020 г.


Эксперт РАН


Ученый секретарь экспертной комиссии по присуждению премии Е.В. Тарле с 2021 г.


Член Экзаменационной комиссии по приему кандидатских экзаменов института истории и политики МПГУ (с 2021 г.).


Педагогическая деятельность:

Чтение лекций и проведение семинаров по дисциплинам «Политический анализ и прогноз в условиях конфликтов и кризисов», «Модернизация и политическое развитие современных государств» на английском языке в магистратуре Российской академии народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации (РАНХиГС)
Чтение лекций по дисциплине «Основы деловой коммуникации в политических процессах» на английском языке в бакалавриате РАНХиГС
Проведение семинаров по дисциплине «Академическое чтение» в бакалавриате РАНХиГС
Чтение дистанционных лекций по дисциплине «История политических учений» филиалам РАНХиГС

Владеет английским и немецким языками.

Профиль автора в Science Index
Профиль автора в Scopus</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>Education:
2012 – Bachelor's degree from Moscow State University (Faculty of History)
2014 – Completion of Master's degree at Moscow State Pedagogical University (Faculty of History)
2019 – PhD in Political Science at IMEMO. D. thesis: &quot;Germany after unification: political problems and contradictions of the integration process&quot; (23.00.02)

Fields of scientific interests:

Foreign and domestic policy of modern Germany
Russian-German relations
German reunification and the integration of the former GDR into a single country
German political parties
Germany's EU policy
European strategic autonomy
Franco-German tandem
Memory policy

Pedagogical activities:

Lecturing and conducting seminars on &quot;Political Analysis and Forecasting in Conflicts and Crises&quot; and &quot;Modernisation and Political Development of Modern States&quot; in English at the Master's programme of the RANEPA
Lecturing on &quot;The Basics of Business Communication in Political Process&quot; in English at the RANEPA undergraduate course
Conducting seminars on &quot;Academic Reading&quot; at the RANEPA undergraduate course
Distance lectures on &quot;History of Political Studies&quot; at RANEPA branches

Additional activities:

since 2020 – Co-Chairman of the IMEMO RAS Council of Young Scientists
RAS Expert
since 2021 – Scientific Secretary of the Expert Commission for awarding the E.V. Tarle Prize
since 2021 – Member of the Examination Commission for PhD examinations at the Institute of History and Politics, Moscow State University</p>
     </bio>
     <email>khorolskaya@imemo.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"></xref>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2-en-1"></xref>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <pub-date pub-type="epub">
    <day>21</day>
    <month>05</month>
    <year>2021</year>
   </pub-date>
   <issue>1</issue>
   <fpage>70</fpage>
   <lpage>83</lpage>
   <permissions>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">© Тимофеев П.П., Хорольская М.В., 2021
Статья поступила в редакцию 28.12.2020.</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="en">© Pavel P. TIMOFEEV, Maria V. KHOROLSKAYA, 2021
Received 28.12.2020.</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-year>2021</copyright-year>
    <copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Тимофеев П.П., Хорольская М.В.</copyright-holder>
    <copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Timofeev P., Khorolskaya M.</copyright-holder>
   </permissions>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://www.afjournal.ru/2021/1/regional-integration-studies/on-the-potential-of-the-franco-german-tandem-to-respond-to-the-common-security-challenges">https://www.afjournal.ru/2021/1/regional-integration-studies/on-the-potential-of-the-franco-german-tandem-to-respond-to-the-common-security-challenges</self-uri>
   <abstract>
    <p>Статья посвящена роли франко-германского тандема в развитии потенциала реагирования Европейского союза на угрозы безопасности. В работе анализируется взаимодействие Берлина и Парижа в европейских гражданских миссиях и военных операциях, а также изучается новый механизм предотвращения угроз – Европейская интервенционная инициатива (ЕИИ). В заключении сделан вывод о современном уровне франко-германского сотрудничества в военной сфере и существующих между Парижем и Берлином расхождениях в стратегической культуре, а также представлен прогноз о будущем влиянии развития ЕИИ на европейскую интеграцию.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The article focuses on the French and German joint efforts towards strengthening the EU’s ability to address the security challenges and act in the European frontier regions. The authors look closely at the two instruments aimed at developing the EU defense capacity: civil missions and military operations, and the European Intervention Initiative (EI2). In the first part of the article, they argue that after 1992 there was a strong possibility for the UK becoming France’s major partner in the military field, rather than Germany. Nevertheless, eventually, Germany shifted to the position of the key French ally in this area, helping to build the basis for the EU autonomous military potential. The EU has undertaken a number of civil missions and military operations; however, their scale and main parameters are far from the characteristics of such interventions of the UN, NATO, or national military operations.
The authors indicate that it is difficult to talk about any “special role” of the Franco-German tandem in this field. Both states can be described as “major donors” for the EU missions and operations rather than champions in the EU security. In several cases there is a lack of synchronization of the countries’ objectives thus their military cooperation sometimes causes serious misunderstandings blocking the fragile coordination on the EU level. In the second part of their research the authors analyze the role of the Franco-German tandem in the European Intervention Initiative (EI2) establishment. The article examines three reasons behind the France’s decision to launch the EI2 initiative in 2018 despite some German objections. The EI2 emerged as a flexible frame for nine countries seeking to carry out offensive operations and interventions outside of the EU and to develop a joint strategic culture. The unique character of the EI2 is evident due to its possibility to engage member countries of the EU, CSFP/PESCO and NATO. The new organization aims to coordinate the work of strategic groups on the broad range of issues. The authors conclude that despite some differences, the Franco-German tandem stimulates a range of projects aspiring to expand its European leadership and to enforce the EU strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, the military leadership of the tandem in the future is not guaranteed, and as the PESCO example shows, there are reasons to start talking about the “quadriga” of players (France, Germany, Italy and Spain), possibly in cooperation with the UK.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>Европейский союз</kwd>
    <kwd>Германия</kwd>
    <kwd>Франция</kwd>
    <kwd>франко-германский тандем</kwd>
    <kwd>европейская интеграция</kwd>
    <kwd>Общая внешняя политика и политика безопасности</kwd>
    <kwd>миссии ЕС</kwd>
    <kwd>безопасность</kwd>
    <kwd>Европейская интервенционная инициатива</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>European Union</kwd>
    <kwd>Germany</kwd>
    <kwd>France</kwd>
    <kwd>French-German tandem</kwd>
    <kwd>European integration</kwd>
    <kwd>Common Foreign and Security Policy</kwd>
    <kwd>EU missions</kwd>
    <kwd>security</kwd>
    <kwd>European Intervention Initiative</kwd>
    <kwd>EI2</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
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 </front>
 <back>
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  <fn-group>
   <fn fn-type="conflict">
    <p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p>
   </fn>
  </fn-group>
 </back>
</article>
