References

afjournal

Анализ и прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН

Analysis & Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO

2713-170X

ИМЭМО РАН

10.20542/afij-2020-2-20-29

Research Article

Статьи

Понять “великую трансформацию столетия”

Understanding the “Great Transformations of a Century”

ЧЖАН Юйянь, Ph.D. (Econ.), академик Китайской академии общественных наук, директор Института мировой экономики и политики Китайской академии общественных наук. Китайская академия общественных наук, Институт мировой экономики и политики, Китайская Народная Республика, 100732 Пекин, Цзяньгомэньнэй дацзе, д. 5 ( yyzhang @ cass . org . cn )

Юйянь

Чжан

Yuyan

Zhang

11 10 2020

2 20 29

2020

Юйянь Ч.

Yuyan Z.

https://www.afjournal.ru/2020/2/development-trends-and-risks/understanding-the-great-transformations-of-a-century

В 2018 г. председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин высказал важное суждение о текущей глобальной ситуации, заявив, что мир находится в состоянии “великой трансформации, невиданной за столетие”. Этот тезис стал для автора отправной точкой в попытке проанализировать и понять сложный современный мир, выявить тенденции времени, дабы эффективно использовать возможности развития и успешно реагировать на вызовы. Трактовка “великой трансформации столетия” охватывает многие аспекты: сравнение изменений мощи великих держав, далеко идущее влияние научно-технического прогресса и сопутствующих ему многочисленных неопределенностей, повсеместное пробуждение сознания собственных прав народных масс, изменения структуры народонаселения, эволюцию международной валютной системы, распад и реконструкцию системы мультилатерализма, ослабление внутренней системы США и китайско-американскую “игру”. В контексте “великой трансформации столетия” также нельзя упускать из поля зрения те факторы, которые не претерпели существенных изменений, чтобы в итоге выявить весь набор компонентов, составляющих международную среду будущего развития Китая.

In 2018 President Xi Jinping made an important judgment on the current global situation, that is, the world is in a state of unprecedented change in a century. This judgment is the starting point for the author to analyze and grasp the complicated world at this stage, follow the trend of the times, make good use of development opportunities, and successfully respond to challenges. The understanding of the century-old change can be seen from the comparison of changes in the strength of the great powers, the far-reaching impact of scientific and technological progress and the numerous uncertainties, the general awakening of people's rights, the change in the population structure, the evolution of the international monetary system, the collapse and reconstruction of the multilateral system, the weakness of the US internal system and The Sino-US game has intensified in eight dimensions. In the context of a century of change, special attention should also be paid to those factors that have not changed significantly. It is these “changes” and “unchanged” that constitute the international environment for China's future development.

Китай США глобализация глобальное соперничество

China USA globalization global competition

UDK

327

References 1

“坚持以新时代中国特色社会主义外交思想为指导努力开创中国特色大国外交新局面”，《人民日报》，2018年6月24日，第1版 [Guided by the Socialist Diplomatic Thought with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era, Strive to Create a New Situation for the Diplomacy among Major Powers with Chinese Characteristics. People's Daily , 24.06.2018 (In Chin.)]

张宇燕：“跨越大国赶超陷阱”，《世界经济与政治》，2018年第1期，第1页 [Zhang Yuyan. Overcoming the Thucydides's Trap. World Economic and Politics , 2018, Iss. 1. P. 1. (In Chin.)]

Graham A. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides's Trap? Boston, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017. 384 p.

Acemoglu D., Robinson J.A. Why Nations Fail . New York, Crown Publishers, 2012. 571 p.

Salisbury P. Autonomous Weapons and the New Laws of War. The Economist , 19.01.2019. Available at: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/19/autonomous-weapons-and-the-new-laws-of-war (accessed 17.02.2020).

Farrell H., Newman A.L. Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion. International Security , 2019, vol. 44, no.1, pp. 42-79.

Nye J. American Soft Power in the Age of Trump. Project Syndicate , 06.05.2019. Available at: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/american-soft-power-decline-under-trump-by-joseph-s-nye-2019-05?barrier=accesspaylog (accessed 17.02.2020).

Ferguson N. The Square and Tower: Networks, Hierarchies and the Struggle for Global Power. New York, Penguin Books, 2018. 573 p.

Hackett C. 5 Facts about the Muslim Population in Europe . Pew Research Center, 29.11.2017. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/11/29/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/ (accessed 17.02.2020).

Hobsbawm E.J. Nations and Nationalism since 1780: Programme, Myth, Reality (Canto Classics). Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2012. 218 p.

Huntington S. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York, Simon and Schuster, 1996. 353 p.

Sachs J.D. Trump’s Policies Will Displace the Dollar. Project Syndicate , 03.09.18. Available at: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-policies-undermining-the-dollar-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2018-09?barrier=accesspaylog (accessed 17.02.2020).

O’Neill J. Trump's Economic War of Choice. The Gulf Times , 15.12.2018. Available at: https://www.gulf-times.com/story/617002/Trump-s-economic-war-of-choice (accessed 17.02.2020).

Zakaria F. The Self-Destruction of American Power: Washington Squandered the Unipolar Moment. Foreign Affairs , 2019, July/August, vol. 98, no. 4, pp. 10-16.

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Available at: https://www.iucnredlist.org (accessed 17.02.2020).

Calomiris C., Haber S. Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit . Princeton University Press, 2014. 570 p.

Lessig L. America, Compromised . University of Chicago Press, 2018. 240 р.

Brill St. How Baby boomers Broke America. The Times , 28.05.2018. Available at: https://time.com/5280446/baby-boomer-generation-america-steve-brill/ (accessed 17.02.2020).

Cover Story: “Dynasties: The Power of Families”. The Economist , 18.04. 2015.

张宇燕、冯维江：“从‘接触’到‘规锁’：美国对华战略意图及中美博弈的四种前景”，《清华金融评论》，2018年第7期，第24~25页 [Zhang Yuyan, Feng Weijiang. From Contact to Confinement: Four Prospects of the U.S. Strategic Intention towards China and the Bilateral Game. Tsinghua Financial Review , 2018, no. 7. (In Chin.)]

China Section 301-Tariff Actions and Exclusion Process . Office of the United States Trade Representative. Available at: https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/enforcement/section-301-investigations/tariff-actions (accessed 17.02.2020).

Culpan T. The Tech Cold War has Begun. Bloomberg, 20.05.2019. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-20/huawei-supply-freeze-points-to-u-s-china-tech-cold-war (accessed 17.02.2020).

Morris I. Why the West Rules--for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future . New York, Picador, 2011. 768 p.

SIPRI Yearbook 2018 . Available at: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2018 (accessed 17.02.2020).

Altman S. Five Myths about Globalization. Washington Post, 12.02.2019.

Nolan P. Is China Buying the World? Cambridge (UK), Malden (MA, USA), Polity Press, 2013. 120 p.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.