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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">afjournal</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="ru">Анализ и прогноз. Журнал ИМЭМО РАН</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>Analysis &amp; Forecasting. Journal of IMEMO</trans-title>
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   </journal-title-group>
   <issn pub-type="epub">2713-170X</issn>
   <publisher>
    <publisher-name xml:lang="ru">ИМЭМО РАН</publisher-name>
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  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20542/afij-2026-1-111-121</article-id>
   <article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">RUARSE</article-id>
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    <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
     <subject>Research Article</subject>
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     <subject>Статьи</subject>
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   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="ru">Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Within the Framework of China-Russian Cooperation</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
     <trans-title>Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Within the Framework of China-Russian Cooperation</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
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    <aff xml:lang="ru">
     <institution>ПЭН Синь ( pengxin @ dlufl . edu . cn ), ORCID : https :// orcid . org /0009-0001-9404-3145 ,
Даляньский университет иностранных языков, кабинет 504, 5-й этаж, здание 11B, № 6, западный участок, Ю жная дорога Люйшунь, г. Далянь 116044, Китай.
ДУН Пэнцзюнь ( 13665436782@163.com ) , ORCID : https :// orcid . org /0009-0006-1870-039 X ,
Даляньский университет иностранных языков, кабинет 504, 5-й этаж, здание 11B, № 6, Западный участок, Южная дорога Люйшунь, г. Далянь 116044, Китай.</institution>
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     <institution>School of International Relations, Dalian University of Foreign Languages, Room 504, 5th Floor, Building 11B, No. 6, West Section, Lvshun South Road, Dalian 116044, China</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff id="aff-2-en-1" xml:lang="en">
     <institution>School of International Relations, Dalian University of Foreign Languages, Room 504, 5th Floor, Building 11B, No. 6, West Section, Lvshun South Road, Dalian 116044, China</institution>
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   <contrib-group>
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     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9404-3145</contrib-id>
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      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Peng</surname>
       <given-names>X.</given-names>
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     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1870-039X</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Dong</surname>
       <given-names>P.</given-names>
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   <pub-date pub-type="epub">
    <day>14</day>
    <month>06</month>
    <year>2026</year>
   </pub-date>
   <issue>1</issue>
   <fpage>111</fpage>
   <lpage>121</lpage>
   <permissions>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">© ПЭН Синь, ДУН Пэнцзюнь, 2026
Поступила в редакцию 26.06.2025.
После доработки 07.03.2026.
Принята к публикации 23.03.2026.</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-statement xml:lang="en">© PENG Xin, DONG Pengjun, 2026
Received 26.06.2025.
Revised 07.03.2026.
Accepted 23.03.2026.</copyright-statement>
    <copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
    <copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Peng X., Dong P.</copyright-holder>
    <license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple">
     <license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p>
    </license>
    <license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple">
     <license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p>
    </license>
   </permissions>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://www.afjournal.ru/2026/1/1global-and-regional-security/expansion-of-the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-within-the-framework-of-china-russian-cooperation">https://www.afjournal.ru/2026/1/1global-and-regional-security/expansion-of-the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-within-the-framework-of-china-russian-cooperation</self-uri>
   <abstract>
    <p>The expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has become one of the most significant developments in Eurasian regional cooperation, reflecting broader transformations in the contemporary international order. Since its establishment, the SCO has evolved from the ‘Shanghai Five’ mechanism into a major cross-regional organization covering a vast part of Eurasia. The admission of India and Pakistan in 2017, followed by the accession of Iran in 2023 and Belarus in 2024, significantly expanded the organization’s geopolitical scope and strengthened its role in regional governance. These developments have closely paralleled the deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia, which has served as the principal driving force behind the institutional evolution of the SCO. This article examines the logic and mechanisms of SCO enlargement within the framework of Sino-Russian cooperation, focusing particularly on the first round of expansion that resulted in the accession of India and Pakistan. The study analyzes the preparatory stages of expansion, including organizational consolidation and the development of legal procedures regulating the admission of new members. It argues that the successful expansion of the SCO was not merely the result of coincidental policy convergence between China and Russia, but rather the outcome of deliberate strategic coordination aimed at strengthening regional stability, expanding the organization’s international influence, and creating new channels for economic and security cooperation across Eurasia. At the same time, the article identifies several structural tensions within the organization that may affect its long-term effectiveness. These tensions stem from differing strategic priorities China’s emphasis on economic cooperation and regional connectivity and Russia’s traditional focus on security governance. Additional challenges arise from the inclusion of states with longstanding geopolitical disputes, particularly the rivalry between India and Pakistan and diplomatic frictions involving India and China. While the SCO provides an institutional framework that encourages dialogue and limited cooperation, such contradictions increase negotiation costs and complicate consensus-based decision-making. The study concludes that despite these challenges, high-level Sino-Russian cooperation remains the key factor ensuring continued development of the SCO. As the organization enters a new stage following three rounds of enlargement, its future effectiveness will depend on balancing internal diversity with strategic coordination, while strengthening its role in promoting regional stability and a more multipolar international order.

Расширение Шанхайской организации сотрудничества (ШОС) стало одним из наиболее значимых процессов в евразийском региональном сотрудничестве и отражает более широкие трансформации в современном международном порядке. С момента своего создания ШОС эволюционировала из механизма “Шанхайской пятерки” в крупную трансрегиональную организацию, охватывающую значительную часть Евразии. Принятие Индии и Пакистана в 2017 г., за которым последовало вступление Ирана в 2023 г. и Беларуси в 2024 г., значительно расширило геополитический масштаб организации и укрепило ее роль в региональном управлении. Эти процессы развивались параллельно с углублением стратегического партнерства между Китаем и Россией, которое выступало основным движущим фактором институциональной эволюции ШОС. В данной статье рассматриваются логика и механизмы расширения ШОС в рамках китайско-российского сотрудничества, с особым акцентом на первый этап расширения, приведший к вступлению Индии и Пакистана. В исследовании анализируются подготовительные стадии расширения, включая институциональную консолидацию и разработку правовых процедур, регулирующих прием новых членов. Утверждается, что успешное расширение ШОС было не просто результатом случайного совпадения политических курсов Китая и России, а скорее итогом целенаправленной стратегической координации, направленной на укрепление региональной стабильности, расширение международного влияния организации и создание новых каналов экономического и безопасного сотрудничества на пространстве Евразии. В то же время в статье выявляются несколько структурных противоречий внутри организации, которые могут повлиять на ее долгосрочную эффективность. Эти противоречия обусловлены различиями в стратегических приоритетах между акцентом Китая на экономическом сотрудничестве и региональной взаимосвязанности и традиционной ориентацией России на вопросы безопасности. Дополнительные вызовы возникают в связи с включением государств с длительными геополитическими спорами, в частности соперничеством между Индией и Пакистаном, а также дипломатическими трениями между Индией и Китаем. Хотя ШОС предоставляет институциональную основу, способствующую диалогу и ограниченному сотрудничеству, подобные противоречия увеличивают издержки переговоров и усложняют принятие решений на основе консенсуса. В исследовании делается вывод о том, что, несмотря на эти вызовы, высокий уровень китайско-российского сотрудничества остается ключевым фактором, обеспечивающим дальнейшее развитие ШОС. По мере того, как организация вступает в новый этап после трех раундов расширения, ее будущая эффективность будет зависеть от способности сочетать внутреннее разнообразие со стратегической координацией, а также от укрепления ее роли в содействии региональной стабильности и более многополярному международному порядку.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has become one of the most significant developments in Eurasian regional cooperation, reflecting broader transformations in the contemporary international order. Since its establishment, the SCO has evolved from the ‘Shanghai Five’ mechanism into a major cross-regional organization covering a vast part of Eurasia. The admission of India and Pakistan in 2017, followed by the accession of Iran in 2023 and Belarus in 2024, significantly expanded the organization’s geopolitical scope and strengthened its role in regional governance. These developments have closely paralleled the deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia, which has served as the principal driving force behind the institutional evolution of the SCO. This article examines the logic and mechanisms of SCO enlargement within the framework of Sino-Russian cooperation, focusing particularly on the first round of expansion that resulted in the accession of India and Pakistan. The study analyzes the preparatory stages of expansion, including organizational consolidation and the development of legal procedures regulating the admission of new members. It argues that the successful expansion of the SCO was not merely the result of coincidental policy convergence between China and Russia, but rather the outcome of deliberate strategic coordination aimed at strengthening regional stability, expanding the organization’s international influence, and creating new channels for economic and security cooperation across Eurasia. At the same time, the article identifies several structural tensions within the organization that may affect its long-term effectiveness. These tensions stem from differing strategic priorities China’s emphasis on economic cooperation and regional connectivity and Russia’s traditional focus on security governance. Additional challenges arise from the inclusion of states with longstanding geopolitical disputes, particularly the rivalry between India and Pakistan and diplomatic frictions involving India and China. While the SCO provides an institutional framework that encourages dialogue and limited cooperation, such contradictions increase negotiation costs and complicate consensus-based decision-making. The study concludes that despite these challenges, high-level Sino-Russian cooperation remains the key factor ensuring continued development of the SCO. As the organization enters a new stage following three rounds of enlargement, its future effectiveness will depend on balancing internal diversity with strategic coordination, while strengthening its role in promoting regional stability and a more multipolar international order.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
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    <kwd>многополярность</kwd>
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   <fn fn-type="conflict">
    <p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p>
   </fn>
  </fn-group>
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</article>
